The bet was meant to be simple, but it wasn’t — $ 1.5 million on Argentina, through Stake, at +245 odds. A win pays $5.175 million. Drake posted the slip to 140 million Instagram followers before the match kicked off.
What the slip didn’t make obvious was the condition attached to it — Argentina had to win inside regulation time, not just win the match. The match went to extra time instead. The bet was lost. Drake placed the bet in Tether (USDT). The cryptocurrency was transferred from his wallet to Stake before the match. The transaction was tracked on the blockchain.
The anonymous big winner
An anonymous bettor won $1.35 million betting online on Spain. Lookonchain tracked the trader’s wallet. The trader created the wallet ten hours before the final. The trader bet $1.95 million on Spain at odds of 59.1%. The bet settled at $3.3 million when Spain won.
The wallet address was “yamal19.” This references Spain’s Lamine Yamal, who was named Young Player of the Tournament. The whale’s bet moved the market. The odds on Spain dropped from 59.1% to 57.8% after the bet was placed.
The match
After the full 90 minutes of regulation, the two teams were scoreless. But things changed after that. A red card to Enzo Fernández left Argentina reeling with only 10 men in the extra time. This one player gap proved to be costly for the defending champions. Spain knew that their opponent’s counterattack was weak, and they were right. Spain beat the defending champions 1-0, with Ferran Torres scoring in the 106th minute.
The extra-time factor
Drake’s bet was for Argentina to win in regulation time. The match went to extra time, where Spain won. This distinction mattered. If Drake had bet on Argentina to win the match outright, he would have lost anyway. Spain won in extra time, but the regulation-time condition meant he lost even earlier. The bet was settled much earlier — after 90 minutes, not after 120.
This is a common trap in sports betting, so the terms of the bet matter. Drake’s bet slip showed the odds and the amount. It didn’t show the condition prominently — the condition was in the fine print.
The other big loser
Another trader, known as “gud.hl,” lost $1.23 million betting on Argentina at 10% odds. The trader had made more than $1 million on the TRUMP meme coin. The trader rolled the entire sum into Argentina. Spain’s win wiped out the position.
Those 10% odds reflect just how big an underdog the market saw Argentina as. The trader was chasing a payout north of $12 million. It didn’t pay off. Drake can find some solace from this outcome.
Drake’s betting record
Drake might have lost this one, but overall, he’s not been that wrong with his decisions. TheDrakeCurse.com tracks Drake’s betting record. Since February 2022, Drake has placed 87 tracked public bets, has wagered $38.72 million, and collected $37.17 million. That’s a net loss of $1.56 million on a win rate sitting at 36.8%.
Since April 2024 alone, public bets have gone south by another $5.7 million. This includes a $1 million wager on Conor McGregor among the more notable ones, along with losing picks on the New England Patriots and Arsenal. The ‘curse’ label for him is quite popular online, but the numbers tell a simpler story. When you place 87 tracked public bets, losing stretches aren’t a mystery — they’re just math.
The influencers
Social media influencers share their wagers with large audiences. Drake is the most visible example. Sportsbooks adjust lines based on public sentiment from these posts. Having a large following doesn’t make you a profitable bettor.
The betting industry has embraced influencer marketing. Platforms sponsor influencers to share their bets. The influencers get paid regardless of results. The platforms get exposure to new users.
Polymarket and Kalshi
There’s another significant thing to be noted here. Drake chose traditional sportsbook betting, but there was a big shift seen towards prediction markets. Polymarket recorded $4.33 billion in trading volume on its World Cup markets.
Kalshi logged $1.89 billion. Kalshi added 3 million new users during the tournament. Both platforms saw millions of dollars in trades during the final. The match was one of the most heavily bet events in prediction market history. Maybe this is where Drake should have tried his luck.
